By Mike Lee | UNION-TRIBUNE
Scientists and policy experts yesterday unveiled San Diego County’s first blueprint for adapting to rising sea levels, altered rainfall and other “catastrophic” changes linked to global warming. “A Regional Wake-up Call” offers detailed projections about how the climate will change by 2050 and offers suggestions for how to lessen those effects.
“While climate change is a global issue, . . . the San Diego region is uniquely threatened,” says the 177-page report, billed as the first comprehensive assessment of climate change’s effects across the region.
To date, climate science has focused on understanding long-term weather trends, predicting their worldwide impact and limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change
A new study outlines what the county could look like in 2050:
- Sea level is 12 to 18 inches higher.
- The average annual temperature is up to 4.5 degrees higher.
- The region requires 37 percent more water while sources such as the Colorado River are smaller by 20 percent or more.
- Fire season starts earlier and the annual number of days with ideal conditions for big wildfires increases by up to 20 percent.
- Peak electricity demand is up by more than 70 percent.
SOURCE: The San Diego Foundation
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But interest in adapting to the likely effects of climate change is growing. On Friday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an executive order to identify California’s biggest vulnerabilities to long-term weather changes and initiate a statewide strategy for addressing them.
A couple of years ago, The San Diego Foundation started pulling together regional leaders to describe the local effects of global warming and outline possible responses. The 40-member group doesn’t have regulatory authority, but its report is likely to influence politicians and bureaucrats as they prepare for potentially major challenges.
“In general, this region has been . . . behind what our expectations were in terms of climate planning,” said Bill Kuni, chairman of the foundation’s Climate Change Initiative committee. “We have to start now if we want to see some significant progress five years from now.”
The first step was to have scientists from UC San Diego, San Diego State University and elsewhere spell out the problems as specifically as possible.
They said that compared with today, San Diego County in 2050 will require 37 percent more water, the number of days with prime conditions for major wildfires will be up to 20 percent greater, and the sea level will be at least 1 foot higher. The results could be more frequent flooding of coastal properties, more severe water shortages and greater strains on public health agencies.
“It’s a pace of change that we just have not experienced,” said Dan Cayan, a climate researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and a co-author of the report. “We need to start thinking about what we would do if different scenarios play out.”
For instance, yesterday’s report said coastal property owners may have to relocate buildings, and agencies may need to reduce or stop coastal development as the ocean rises.
Other coping mechanisms include the countywide adoption of drought-tolerant landscaping, greater investment in water recycling programs, prohibitions against building in fire-prone areas and better early-warning systems for heat waves.
Read on here.
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