Eliza Barclay | San Francisco Chronicle
Coyllur, Peru — For the first half of his life, potato farmer Gregorio Huanuco used the same formula that had dictated the survival of his ancestors for generations. Huanuco, 48, waited for rains to fall on his small parcel of land to sustain his crops of potatoes as well as various tubers and quinoa. When ripened, his family ate what they needed and sold the surplus in the nearby central city of Huaraz.
But by 1990, Huanuco began noting strange climatic patterns in this village of 500 residents at 11,000 feet in the Andean Cordillera Blanca. They included battering hailstorms, months without rain and warmer winters. By 2005, the quirky weather became more consistent and included a fungus that blanketed his potato crops. Huanuco now worries about earning enough to put food on the table and buy school books for his three children.
“Before, we planted all year long, any month we wanted to,” Huanuco said while eyeing a tiny potato plot. “Now we only get water a few times a year and cannot plant as much, and the pests and diseases keep coming.”
Most climatologists blame global warming for Huanuco’s woes.
“Climate change is bringing new and more frequent diseases during the harvest,” said Cesar Portocarrero, a civil engineer who has been studying the effects of global warming on the Peruvian Andes for decades. “As plagues and temperatures increase, farmers are forced to go higher and higher up the mountains to avoid them. Eventually they’ll have nowhere to go.”
One of the big losers is the 1.8 million potato farmers like Huanuco, who depend on predictable climate. Most are ill prepared to handle new pests and diseases that have materialized as temperature and rainfall patterns have shifted, agronomists say.
A 2006 study published in the journal Science, showed that between 1939 and 1998 temperatures in the Andes increased more than two times the global average. And according to a September 2007 study on climate change by the Overseas Development Institute, a British think tank, countries like Peru can avoid a decline in exports and living standards by shifting technical support from produce vulnerable to climate change like potatoes to more drought-resistant crops.
Peruvian President Alan Garcia, however, has opted to stick with the potato as a way to alleviate poverty by increasing production for domestic and external markets, and has pledged to provide more technical assistance for potato growers. Even though small farmers’ yields have decreased because of climate change, the Garcia administration is pushing farmers both large and small to grow more potatoes. As a result, Peru produced 3.2 million tons in 2007, up from 2.9 million tons in 2004, according to the Exporters Association of Peru.
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